One of the things I notice from Saifedean Ammous's The Gold Standard and his views about credit creation and money e.g. here
https://youtu.be/Tb3soXtRqSw?si=OfvINYGYKNqFiy1M
is that he 100% believes that on a hard money standard, interest lending goes to zero everywhere and increased capital accumulation alone, increased wealth and prosperity, and declining time preference can finance everything.
Many Bitcoiners likely share this same view.
In the link shared, he seems to intimate this is why he likes the Islamic banking system which, fundamentally, is against usury (he doesn't say it explicitly), and while speaking of which is more moral, he concedes that despite the force of the gun that aids finance social services via taxation, it is far more moral than the hidden tax of inflation / credit creation --> the twin system behind a world where everybody and every organization today is in debt.
Imo, Saifedean thus has a better framework for a utopian world than Elon Musk who thinks simply building robots will eliminate poverty. If the robots are built in a fiat system you can be sure we're heading the direction of Star Wars and not Star Trek. Or worse. If they are built via capital accumulation on a hard money standard, then they will provide even more capital accumulation which will be shared freely as gifts (remember, no loans) while the need for taxation and, in many respects a big centralized government itself, declines.
The original idea of Adam Smith of capital creating more capital. True capitalism.
However, let's flip from this ideal
hyperbitcoinization vision to see what fiat actually says.
To steelman the case for fiat,
think of the wonderful things that fiat has financed in record time.
Assume we were on a purely hard money standard, perhaps in some extension of Saifedean's timeline created in The Gold Standard,
where the financing of any major projects e.g. building an AI lab, required either taxation or something like a global Geyser / Kickstarter crowdfunding mechanism. Now in the real world, AI as a field was started in 1956, and if the dream then was to build ChatGPT then there were at least 70 years of frustration that, more than anything, needed the technology of processing chips to mature and for the internet to exist, and self-kickstart the knowledge cache that will be needed to train AI on advanced processing chips.
On a fiat standard, this has been financed as government research through credit creation more than taxation (the gold standard was officially ended in 1971 but the fiat standard of credit creation actually started in 1913).
What other things have been financed by debasement of currency via credit creation?
Yes, Wars.
But when the Prince is happy on drink and the charms of his women, there is no war and he is listening to his smart aides, why not indulge in credit creation so as to build a Sistine Chapel, a Pyramid, a Rocket to the Moon, A Satellite Internet System, etc.
This is why fiat exists in the first place.
It is a tool of power that the powerful reach for first, before they go through the boring ordeal of taxation.
In a narrow sense, fiat is simply paper money created on a whim to satisfy the aims of some bourgeoisie. But the word "fiat" originates from Latin, meaning "let it be done".
Fiat is the original decree and paper fiat money actually started as the printing of decrees on paper and handing then out to the populous in places like Imperial China.
Credit creation can also be seen as the
accumulation of favors in the dynamics of power play. So not only the Prince, but also his aides, could create money via credit and why, prior to the idea that money can only be created by the state, money could be created by anybody who could be trusted as documented by Nick Szabo on his blog (a trust minimized system since there were many players. If A's fiat money is debased, then A runs of out business and trust and B gains more clients as his money is still trust worthy.
What we have created with our global debt system is a trust maximized system. Held together more by the threat of nuclear fallout -- which would definitely kick the can many centuries into the future -- than by the desire to actually do business with people different from us.
Thank you Oppenheimer for creating the perfect debt glue. I see a quadrillion in debt easy. Who'll be keeping track of the debt obligations? No idea).
Pardon the digression, but you see my point.
Fiat can be extreme, as it is in our case, but it's emergence is very much organic and for most of human history, nobody understood very well what a hard money was. But they understood imperial decrees and power.
Now that we understand hard money, humanity is going to look carefully at fiat to see how it behaves, but to make it go away will be a tall order.
Finally, fiat and credit creation is done by us all and we all love to offer interest because nature can either mess our plans or kill us.
We offer interest because we want other people to take us seriously, because it is a form of insurance against calamity, and because we are mortal.
Consider again that purely hard money standard.
If one be it an individual or company or government had accumulated, by sheer good will and earnest labour, 10 million bitcoins, the idea that they should simply give some away to some noble cause e.g. build a futuristic hospital that will take so many years, feels like throwing gold to pigs.
If those without are not, in a way, held responsible by the demand to pay back this money, they might waste the gift given to them yet one is mortal and besides, maybe they wanted to build themselves instead a robotics factory.
The people being given a decree cannot respect it if it is politely given. Machiavelli 101. So in a way, people seem to expect fiat to exist if they are to ever respect their Princes at all.
In the end, the first decree came from God himself.
"Let the world be created"
It is at the end of our prayers too.
So every King is playing God when they debase. "Let x be funded".
Bitcoin will temper this fiat. Like the voice of reason that keeps the Prince from risking the wrath of his people, lest they hang him for taking them to hell.
Alas, the only way to learn our lesson to be moderate, and the only way our Princes will learn to keep their egos in check, is to rack this up to sky high levels first.
Let it be done.
China has won the trade war and now USA cannot fight a military war of any scale because China holds the supply of refined rare earths required to fight a modern war...
Its not all about the monetary system but about the quality and strategic intelligence and sense of purpose of your government.
Western governments have been taken over by parasitic bankers and corporate lobbyists who rentseek and squander fiat debt issuance to inflate non productive speculative assets but fail to invest in productive industry and infrastructure.
China has won the trade war and now USA cannot fight a military war of any scale because China holds the supply of refined rare earths required to fight a modern war...
The US needs to keep leveraging its intellectual capital (not dollar hegemony) to remain the leader in cyberspace and internet marketing and entertainment so that in case of a war, it has more allies than China.
Having more weapons might seem like a winning move but if one has no true allies, they lose.
Ref: The defeat of the well stocked Nazi army.
People fight wars, not guns and weapons. Not even an army of drones I'll argue (they can be hacked).
China has no interest in fighting the USA and the problem is America's debt problem. Seems like there'll be a lot of trade wars on the road to $1 quadrillion in debt. After which point people will maybe realize this is all crazy and they will stop chasing the high of debt cocaine. Maybe we will go back to being religious and to looking to the stars, and to having kids and not not bothering with overpriced fiat school when trade skills are everywhere.
USA has 5k nukes China Has 500+
"I'm not afraid of the man who wants ten nuclear weapons, Colonel. I'm terrified of the man who only wants one."
-The PeacemakerHaha!
Never listen to Nicole Kidman, except when it's about nuclear weapons. lol
Hahah that movie was okay. I’m shocked you quoted it haha movie was mostly forgettable for me
It was a smart thing to say. I try to remember smart things. Had to look up who said it though. lol
I agree!!
Of course it's all about the monetary system. As long as there exists a money printer, someone with access is going to keep pushing the print-money button until, first gradually and then suddenly, it becomes worthless for everyone else.
See this is why the Japanese are smarter than you. You apparently can't look at a system objectively from an engineering perspective. You have to filter every idea through the Opium Wars no matter how irrelevant it is to the problem at hand.
I'm closing on 13 years in and I am still not convinced that that is ideal. If the standard (which is always by decree) is Bitcoin, then what... shitcoiners become the cool rebels? I remain of the unpopular opinion that Bitcoin does best when it is optional, not mandatory. Fuck standards, embrace best practices to solve your problems.
Educational effort > standardization effort?