As the tumultuous year that is 2025 draws to a close, a well-worn ritual is under way: pundits are issuing solemn forecasts for 2026 on inflation, geopolitics, stock markets and more. 

Now, however, there is a new twist: amateurs are jumping into this game too. One particularly striking trend in America is an explosion in the online prediction markets, including sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket, that let anyone place bets on the future.

"Call this the casino mentality of 2025."

A second explanation is cultural. During the 2020 Covid lockdown, financial “gamification” proliferated as platforms such as Robinhood made it easier to invest or speculate online. This has probably been intensified by the profound political malaise and rising economic nihilism among Gen Z. (#1295061)

One sign of that is the rise of online rating systems that score — and shape — consumer choices. Another is the growing reliance on social media over legacy “experts”. A third is the rise of bitcoin. The key point, then, is that trust is migrating from the vertical to the lateral axis.

"whether you love or hate this casino culture, it seems unlikely to disappear anytime soon"

let us pray that in 2026, the CFTC and other regulators take their jobs seriously, and combat deliberate predictions manipulation. Market discipline probably cannot do this alone — whatever libertarians say.

And let us all remember that while blind trust in elite technocrats is dangerous, it is also risky to assume crowds are always wise. We need both, since the least bad way to survive perilous times is to create checks and balances — whether in politics, media, finance or forecasting.