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Hedging your bets, learn from @Undisciplined
399 sats \ 25 comments \ @south_korea_ln 18h oracle
@Undisciplined applying textbook hedging principles in prediction market dynamics?
His belief, based on this market:
but hedged using this market:
Total spend: 16,290 + 6,950 = 23,240 Potential outcome: 25,000 sats on the 1.5M market and 32,350 sats on the 1.4M market.
Result: Profit of 9910 sats if what he believes works out. If it doesn't, then he still makes 1,760 sats.
The longer we keep adding to the pot, the more it works out for him. Just needs to balance out each bet to the 1.4M market...
Learn from the master, not from us, the other apes...
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42 sats \ 1 reply \ @OT 17h
How much time did he spend to master this arbitrage play?
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33 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 17h
Basically zero
When I see one market move significantly, I just buy offsetting shares of each to make the spread more reasonable.
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144 sats \ 2 replies \ @Entrep 11h
Just learning about the Predyx platform from this post, is it like a betting platform using sats. Can you recommend a guide to how it work?
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 6h
Can you recommend a guide to how it work?
I'd recommend just trying it out and letting @mega_dreamer know if something is confusing or doesn't work
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 8h
It's a prediction market, like Polymarket or Kalshi, but using sats.
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0 sats \ 17 replies \ @Undisciplined 17h
Unless we end up between 1.4M and 1.5M
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42 sats \ 14 replies \ @south_korea_ln OP 17h
True. Those are the edge cases that can fuck it all up.
At this point, I would expect a yes voter from the 1.4M to either know something we don't (e.g. @ek, who knows about an HR play for the coming months to increase SN adoption) or to actively skew the market in their favor (e.g. @Coinsreporter starting to post 1000s of posts per day).
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25 sats \ 12 replies \ @Undisciplined 17h
Even with those cases, I'm reasonably confident they won't land right in between the two marks.
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42 sats \ 9 replies \ @ek 16h
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82 sats \ 8 replies \ @SimpleStacker 14h
Haha still funny to me that people are betting on something that at least one of the other bettors has literal direct control over
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105 sats \ 7 replies \ @south_korea_ln OP 13h
I see it differently.
I see it as a way to reward/incentivize this other bettor to make the unlikely happen, thanks to his more direct control.
If I lose this bet, I'll feel good about it, because then it means SN is doing better than expected.
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21 sats \ 6 replies \ @Undisciplined 8h
That's right, it's a win-win
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142 sats \ 5 replies \ @south_korea_ln OP 8h
Seems like a bot has started doing just that...
2000 posts in last 30 minutes...
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42 sats \ 1 reply \ @Coinsreporter 16h
And somehow if we land in between, you lose both of your bets. Your strategy is same like your nym just @Undisciplined, doesn't know where it's heading to...haha
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 8h
I have already made my sats back by trading all the movement, so I'm not too worried about it.
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42 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 16h
Hello no, I can't post 1000 posts per day to win this, it won't be worth it I'm not winning at least a million. Right now we're exactly falling behind by 1000 items/day but I'm putting my faith into time which I believe is still not over.
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62 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 16h
This is likely to happen if we hit 1.4M. We aren’t hitting 1.5.
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82 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 15h
We may fall behind by 100k items if the current trend continues. I'm seeing a continuous collapse in activity on SN for the last few days if not months. Maybe the reward being cut in half is the reason. But we can't do anything about it. It wasn't a good move to repair when something wasn't broken.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @247bf84fda 1h
So, bumping the item count by 100k is possible in a couple of hours.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 16h
Let me tell ya potential profit for @Undisciplined will be a NET ZERO..haha
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