There's already a premium market for clean BTC, it's the institutional over-investment in miners for their clean-BTC yield

MARA et al are the dealers for know-your-provenance coins

As the recent trials have shown, exchanges and chain analysis companies are grossly incompetent at actually identifying coins so it could be pretty easy to arbitrage without actually giving up anything.

We'll probably find out what happens at some point.

What does gold do on the black market? Is it a premium compared to its paper claims?

Are KYC coins really expected to be more valuable in such a situation? That's the only way I could see separate markets with separate prices emerging. How much could the difference be? Anything more than few bips would be easy to arbitrage.

Who the hell needs exchanges? Pay with btc. Use lightning and stay away from kyc bullshit! Do not share your identity with any company, in the end all data will be stolen at some point and used against you. So you should boycott kyc casinos. A lot of people will arbitrage the spread of dity and clean btc and wash it. If this market appears, i bet it will go up to 99cent per dollar. Because real bitcoiners do not belive in tainted coins. P2P ist the best way to go, but people do not trust each other anymore. Sometimes they are even lazy or to scared to get out to make a P2P deal. Cuck and comply is not an option for a real bitcoiner. Maybe you have to do it if you are running a business and want to avoid the potential problems.

There's no such thing as "tainted BTC" or "clean". Saying that such thing exist is just stupid. If that will ever exist it will TWO DIFFERENT "COINS" , two different chains and not anymore Bitcoin.

The blockchain will continue to work moving bitcoin, I don't depend on exchanges to move my money.

Good. More business for us. Since people started running those stupid AML bots there is more demand for BTC->L-BTC and BTC->LN swaps.

Might be good in that it could jump start a circular economy (tainted sat holders need somewhere to spend their sats).

Bisq

The taint is in your mind.

Little bit KYC, little bit non KYC