Why so much lower? First, there is a time lag, because tariffs are not applied to goods that have already left the origin port (and it can take up to one month for cargo ships to cross the Pacific). Moreover, there was significant front-running of tariffs earlier this year, with a surge of imports increasing inventories and lowering subsequent trade flows.

So long as you remember that goods imports are small in the US, there are significant price effects visible in the supply chain. These have so far generated modest price increases for consumers, as inventory is sold and companies have yet to show much sign of expanding margins.