Falling birth rates and AI automation are reshaping the same future.

Two sweeping visions of the future have been unfolding, each producing grim — yet seemingly contradictory — predictions for the fate of humanity.

On the one hand, we’re learning that the birth rate is falling all over the world, leading to aging societies and a global population set to decline this century. If trends continue on their present path, demographers warn, there won’t be enough people to work to support society. The extreme labor shortages would lead to stagnation, poverty, and ultimately — in the most dire scenarios — the collapse of civilization itself.

On the other hand, there are repeated warnings that artificial intelligence could take most, or even all, jobs. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently predicted that AI would eliminate 50 percent of entry-level white-collar jobs within the next five years. Though other AI leaders are more skeptical about such sweeping automation, the International Monetary Fund did find that between 2010 and 2021, the US regions that adopted AI most quickly saw larger drops in employment rates, with men and workers in manufacturing and service jobs hit hardest.

What happens if we’re short on both workers and jobs? Can both be true at once? And if they cancel each other out, does that mean we don’t need to worry?

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