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23 sats \ 4 replies \ @bitcoingraffiti 9h \ on: Is MicroStrategy the bitcoin bank Hal Finney dreamed of? bitcoin
I don't know why people keep on saying that MSTR is a ponzi and have such distrust in its chairman. It sounds like you guys are in the Anarchist Monotheistic Church of Distrust or something. Saylor is only exposing how ponzi the fiat system really is.
Basically you can give creditors a 10% annual perpetual dividend and still win on your investment, because you invest it in Bitcoin, and US dollar money supply grows at an equal/higher rate (ignoring Bitcoin's growth in adoption).
Microstrategy isn't by any means undercollateralised and only has a debt/equity of about 25% (which is lower than most top NASDAQ stocks).
Note that the converts are offered at a premium. These transactions are pure profit.
So what people mean when they say 'pOnZi' is that they can't fathom why there's a multiple on NAV and thus believe $MSTR is overpriced and are very scared to invest in it (and frustrated they missed out).
In the worst case scenario, MSTR will draw down to NAV. And if it's beyond worse, then the cynics should def buy the stock. But none of you were there when the mNAV hit <1 last bear.
the next bear market will be a good test for MSTR and I predict 2026 will be a year of 'correction' similar to 2022
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Maybe. I doubt though it's gonna play out like previous bear. Treasury companies and ETFs are still sucking up >2x the supply. I'm open to the idea that the cycles (as we know them) are over. The fact that this bull run has remained tepid, bolsters my belief. But if exuberance returns only then I'll expect another bear. Yet price action remains mellow currently.
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historically the best returns have been Q4: oct nov dec
this year is only half over and it's premature to say "cycles as we know them are over"
I think
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I didn't say cycles were over. I said I'm open to the idea they might be over.
I.e. I'm assigning a probability that this time it will be different.
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