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3-Day Aggregate Liquidity: Excess of long positions (magnet to US$110,000)

3-Month Aggregate Liquidity: Excess of short positions (magnet at US$127,000)

Interesting scenario: the Fed's announcement has a short-term "reverse" effect and the price will seek liquidity at US$100,000, preparing the ground for US$127,000 subsequently.

![](https://m.stacker.news/114471)

![](https://m.stacker.news/114473)

Settlement Levels: Long vs. Short Term

I found out why this Bitcoin cycle is "lukewarm".


Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. The mix of old holders taking profit, regular buyers slowing down, and TradFi capital trading the range really explains the current market behavior.

This is something 99% of the market is ignoring, and it explains everything:

All four previous Bitcoin peaks coincided exactly with a macro indicator reaching 60+.

This cycle? Stuck around 50 for 26 consecutive months – the longest record in history.

And this completely changes what you should expect for the end of 2025 and 2026.

The pattern is eerily accurate:

2011: Bitcoin peak at $10 → ISM ~60
2013: Bitcoin peak at $1k → ISM ~60
2017: Bitcoin peak at $20k → ISM ~61
2021: Bitcoin peak at $63k → ISM ~64

Accuracy rate? 100%

The indicator?

ISM Manufacturing Index - a measure of the health of the American manufacturing sector that very few in the crypto market are paying attention to.

Meanwhile, from April 2024 to April 2025, Bitcoin rose only 31%. In previous cycles? 300% to 567% in the same post-halving period.

Here's what's happening:

The ISM acts as an amplifier of the economic cycle.

When it shoots above 60 → signals a manufacturing boom → abundant liquidity → high corporate flows → speculative capital explodes → Bitcoin enters a parabolic phase.

When it falls below 50 (contraction) → restricted liquidity → defensive mode → sideways market.

The ISM is the component that explains why some cycles explode 300%+ and others remain moderate.

The current cycle is living proof:
From Nov/22 to Dec/24, the ISM remained in contraction territory for 26 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS – an absolute record in history.

2023 Average: 47.1
2024 Average: 48.3
2025: still oscillating between 48-49

Instead of seeing the ISM rise vertically from 46 to 60+ (as in 11, 13, 17 and 21), we were stuck in the 46-50 range for 3 years.

Result? Bitcoin rising slowly, as if swimming against the current, instead of explosive vertical movement.

The halving and ETFs create the narrative. But the fuel was missing: manufacturing expansion.

Why does the market ignore this?

Because 99% only looks at halvings and date coincidences.

"So many days from bottom to top."

"So many days from halving to top."

Etc.

And they forget that the halving even provides the scarcity narrative (and with each Bitcoin cycle, with less impact), but the economic cycle provides LIQUIDITY.

Without a manufacturing boom (ISM 60+) = no conditions for euphoric peaks.

With Bitcoin becoming increasingly institutionalized, this correlation only tends to INCREASE, not decrease.

Institutions allocate based on macroeconomics, not community hype.

So, what's the trade?

Theory predicts: extended cycle in DURATION, but moderate in AMPLITUDE.

The parabolic peak only comes when the ISM finally executes the vertical movement to 60+.

Some analysts project mid-2026.

Until then? Macroeconomic patience will separate those who capture the vertical movement from those who give up prematurely.

The real insight isn't the perfect correlation. It's the EXPLANATORY ELEGANCE:

Why do seemingly identical cycles (halving every 4 years) produce such different results?

Because the timing of the halving is predictable.

The timing of the economic boom? Not so much.

And when they ALIGN (2017, 2021) → magic happens.

When they misalign (2024-2025) → collective frustration.

This isn't altcoin hype or conspiracy theory.

Bitcoin is sensitive to economic cycles like any other institutional risk asset.

What this means NOW:

If you're confused about why "this time is different"... you're not.

It's precisely in line with the theory.

Awaiting the manufacturing expansion that catalyzes peaks.

What if the ISM shoots up to 60+ in the next few quarters?

Get ready for the vertical movement everyone's waiting for.

If it stays below 50? More sideways consolidation.

It's that simple.

The market hasn't crashed. It's just waiting for the green light from the economic cycle.

When the ISM finally crosses 60 and Bitcoin explodes to $150k+, you'll understand EXACTLY why it happened.

And you'll be positioned while 99% are still looking for patterns where there aren't any.

![](https://m.stacker.news/114461)