EconVerse

Stacker_Stocks

Russian oil shipments to Asia have declined in recent weeks, with visible drops in volumes destined for China and India.

At the same time, the share of cargoes without a declared final destination is growing, with ships extending routes, using intermediate ports, or waiting to unload.

In practice, less oil "appears" in the official data, but a good portion remains in transit, indicating logistical adjustments and not necessarily a structural drop in supply.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125033)

Russian oil continues to flow, it's just become more "opaque".

Is it time to change the stacker stocks territory name?

BlokchainB

I like Stacker_Stocks because I find it very democratic; on it I can talk about gold, silver, the Fed, oil, and Bitcoin.

Venezuelan bonds surged after the US capture of Maduro.

Sovereign and PDVSA bonds, which had traded at pennies until 2023, rose about 22% on the day, pushing the 2027 bond to the 40-cent region.

The movement reflects the perception of a higher probability of debt restructuring, institutional recovery, and future access to the country's assets.

Asset managers and hedge funds that bought distressed debt were the main beneficiaries, and firms like Barclays quickly revised their recommendations in light of the abrupt change in the scenario.

![](https://m.stacker.news/124932)

Venezuela: The market reacts to the facts.

deleted by author

Sanctions break countries, not reserves: the Venezuelan oil dilemma.

The US has become increasingly dependent on heavy oil, and Venezuela has precisely what the American system lacks.

Plenty of heavy oil, difficult to extract and impossible to obtain without capital, technology, and scale.

Sanctions broke the infrastructure, not the reserves.

The oil remained there, untouched, while the country sank.

Checkmate.

![](https://m.stacker.news/124604)

The Sell Side Indicator remains high, at 55.9%, close to the zone historically associated with a sell signal.

When consensus becomes excessively optimistic, marginal return tends to fall.

This isn't crash timing, but rather a relatively worse period for new allocations.

In mature bull markets, risk usually stems less from macroeconomic factors and more from positioning.
![](https://m.stacker.news/124300)


The sell-side thermometer

econ

Oil begins 2026 trading sideways, with Brent near US$60, pressured by oversupply and weaker demand.

OPEC+ signals caution and is likely to maintain the production pause in Q1, attempting to hold prices.

At the same time, geopolitical noise remains on the radar, involving Venezuela, Iran, Russia, and Ukraine.

Fundamentals are weighing down, while geopolitics limits the decline.
![](https://m.stacker.news/124286)


Oil starts 2026 moving sideways.

The decoupling between stocks and precious metals is nothing new; in the US, this movement has been going on for over a decade.

Gold and silver capture flows when real interest rates fall, volatility rises, and equity concentration increases.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123876)


When the risk shifts location

Deutsche Bank sees fundamentals pointing to weaker oil in 2026, with oversupply and clear limits to further OPEC+ cuts.

Brent is projected around US$55, with the yield curve in contango and structurally pressured returns.

The bias is bearish, even with geopolitical risks on the radar, which today seem more like a tail than a central scenario.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123865)


Oil in 2026: more downside risk than upside risk.

Third time in 2 weeks

In 2011, the CME increased its margin 5x in 9 days. Silver fell 30% in weeks

They did the same thing in 1980. Silver went from $50 to $10
![](https://m.stacker.news/123664)


The CME just increased margin requirements for metals mid-session.

In the early 1970s, brothers Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt (heirs to a Texas oil fortune) began accumulating silver massively as a hedge against high inflation after the end of the gold standard (1971). They bought physical silver (bullion) and futures contracts on COMEX, eventually controlling about 200 million ounces—more than half of the world's private supply at the time.
This drove the price of silver from ~$6/oz in early 1979 to a peak of $49–50/oz on January 18, 1980 (an increase of over 700%). At its peak, their positions were worth billions in paper gains, creating a real shortage and a "silver fever."


The Collapse: March 27, 1980
Regulators then intervened: in January 1980, COMEX adopted Silver Rule 7, restricting leveraged purchases and position limits. The brothers, heavily indebted, were unable to meet margin calls.

On March 27, 1980, the price fell more than 50% in a single session, from about US$21/oz to US$10.80/oz — the largest daily percentage collapse in silver history at the time.

This caused panic in the markets, affecting even stocks and other precious metals.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123651)



Consequences:
The brothers lost approximately US$1–1.7 billion, received a US$1.1 billion bailout from banks to prevent a systemic collapse, but declared bankruptcy in 1988.
They were convicted of market manipulation: they were fined approximately US$10 million each, plus US$134 million in civil damages, and they were banned from trading commodities for life.
The event led to regulatory reforms at COMEX and CFTC, including stricter position limits.
To this day, Silver Thursday is a classic example of extreme leverage risk-taking, attempting to corner the market with subsequent regulatory intervention—this is often compared to modern squeezes, but unique for the scale it had at that time.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123652)


Do you know the story of the Hunt brothers?

Supported by stronger fixing by the PBoC and a weaker dollar.

The message is clear: Beijing wants gradual appreciation, without volatility, to bolster confidence and attract capital flows to Chinese markets.

A stronger currency, reacting equities, and cautiously returning foreign capital, all carefully orchestrated.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123614)


The yuan broke through the psychological level of 7 per dollar since 2024.

Gold broke through $4,500/oz and is on track for its best year since 1979.

The rise is supported by central bank purchases, flows into ETFs, and the start of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle.

With real interest rates falling and geopolitical risk on the horizon, the metal is once again fulfilling its classic role as a store of value.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123604)


Gold as the protagonist of 2025

BooksAndArticles

It was standardized by Coca-Cola's marketing department to solve a real business problem: transforming the worst sales period of the year into the most profitable.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123465)


Few people know, but Santa Claus has existed for almost 1,700 years. His origin comes from Saint Nicholas of Myra (270–343 AD), in present-day Turkey, a bishop known for making anonymous donations to poor children and families.

The original archetype was generosity, not consumption.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123466)


In medieval Europe, Saint Nicholas evolved into Sinterklaas, especially in the Netherlands.

The name "Santa Claus" emerged later in the USA, as a phonetic adaptation brought by Dutch immigrants in the 17th century.

So far, no marketing, no mass consumption.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123467)



For centuries, Santa Claus had no standard appearance.

He has been portrayed as thin, serious, tall, sometimes even frightening, wearing green, brown, or blue.

Each region had its own version. There was no universal character.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123468)



The same applies to Christmas.
In the early centuries of Christianity, Christmas was not celebrated, and the Bible does not mention December 25th as the date of Jesus' birth.

The date was only adopted in the 3rd century, partly because it coincided with pagan winter festivals.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123469)




Christmas only began to take on its "modern face" in the 19th century.
After 1840, Prince Albert brought the tradition of the Christmas tree to England.

In 1848, the image of the royal family around the tree spread, and the ritual became fashionable in the West.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123470)




With the Industrial Revolution, Christmas became something new: an annual economic anchor.

Mass production + advertising + gifts created a predictable period of large-scale emotional consumption.




Herein lies Coca-Cola's dilemma at the beginning of the 20th century. The brand was growing rapidly, but it had a structural problem: iced soda sold very well in the summer and plummeted in the winter.

Christmas was one of the worst periods of the year for the company.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123471)



In 1931, Coca-Cola decided to use marketing to change the game. They hired illustrator Haddon Sundblom and created a human Santa Claus, friendly, with a big belly and dressed in red.

The message was clear: Coca-Cola is synonymous with happiness, family, and Christmas.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123472)



The campaign was not a one-off event.

It was repeated and refined for over 30 years (1931–1964), creating global consistency.

The result was historic: Christmas ceased to be a problem and became one of the most valuable periods for the brand, helping to transform Coca-Cola into one of the most recognized symbols on the planet.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123473)



The economic impact of this turnaround was gigantic.
In 1930, Coca-Cola had a revenue of around US$50 million/year and was predominantly American.

Throughout the 20th century, with Christmas as a global narrative pillar, the brand expanded to more than 200 countries.

Today, annual revenue is around US$45 billion, and Christmas is one of the most strategic periods for brand reinforcement and consumption.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123474)



This same mechanism didn't remain in the 20th century.

Big Tech, AI, and crypto work the same way:

strong narratives create adoption, attract capital, and shape behavior even before the product is mature.

Those who understand narrative cycles understand why certain assets explode in value while others remain invisible.




Wishing everyone at SN a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year! 🎄✨

🎅 The Santa Claus you know today was not created by the Catholic Church.

2025 marked the inflection point that few expected.

After years of weak inflows, emerging markets once again attracted capital at the fastest pace since 2009.

The combination of a weaker dollar, falling interest rates, fiscal improvement, and favorable carry trade changed the global mood.

We ended the year with emerging markets outperforming the US after many years.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123241)


The year emerging markets got back in the game.

Oracle has already committed approximately US$248 billion in data center leases, far exceeding its peers.

This is capital expenditure disguised as rent: off the balance sheet today, but with significant long-term obligations.

The AI ​​cycle accelerates revenue, but also introduces an additional layer of financial risk that the market is beginning to price in.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123240)


Oracle and the invisible leverage of the data center lifecycle.

MSTY Payout #16: HO HO HO! Merry Christmas Stackers!!!

Thank you so much! I'm very grateful and congratulations on the encouragement 🙏

To justify record capital expenditures on AI, Big Tech companies would need to generate between US$1.7 and US$2.5 trillion in incremental revenue by 2030.

The bottom-up analysis shows significant growth in cloud, ads, software, and services, but still short of what would be needed for a "comfortable" return on investment.

The equation is clear: AI needs to accelerate monetization…
![](https://m.stacker.news/122981)


AI under pressure: the race for $2 trillion in monetization by 2030

At the beginning of the year, Google was seen as the big loser in the AI ​​race, with a dominant narrative of "the end of search" and structural disruption of the model.

2025 delivered the opposite.

$GOOG closes the year as the best performer among the Mag7, combining AI execution, efficient monetization, and solid defense of its core.

![](https://m.stacker.news/122824)

Google closes the year as the best performer among the Mag7.

Even a small disruption in data center projects is enough to put the market on alert.

The Oracle case, with uncertainty surrounding equity investment in Michigan, has reignited doubts about leverage, funding, and the cost of debt.

Even with projects "on schedule," the sensitivity is clear: AI has become a macro thesis, but it has also created billions of dollars in off-balance-sheet commitments.

With over US$500 billion in future leases, the cost of AI capex is starting to weigh heavily.

![](https://m.stacker.news/122571)