EconVerse

Stacker_Stocks

Today, the difference is structural and growing.

Technology, innovation, capital, and economic flexibility have become much more significant over time.

In the end, productivity is destiny.

And whoever grows faster inevitably pulls the rest of the game along.


![](https://m.stacker.news/138474)

Twenty-five years ago, the US and Germany were neck and neck in productivity.

China has just broken its production record, approaching 4.6–4.8 million barrels/day, consolidating a consistent trend since 2018.

This is energy policy.

Amid tensions in the Middle East, the country is accelerating domestic production to reduce external dependence.

Ultimately, this helps to cushion global supply shocks.


![](https://m.stacker.news/138336)

China ramps up oil production as a partial defense strategy.

The global market is expected to grow from approximately US$8 billion in 2025 to nearly US$50 billion by 2030, with a CAGR exceeding 40%.

And it's not concentrated: the US leads, but Asia is growing even faster, at almost 50% annually.

This doesn't sound like hype to me.

It's accelerated adoption and global competition for productivity.

Get ready...

![](https://m.stacker.news/138205)

AI Agents: Exponential growth underway.

While flows are leaving US ETFs, China continues to buy consistently.

It's not just about price, it's about flow.

And flow says more about trends than anything else.

![](https://m.stacker.news/138078)

Is the gold changing hands?

Brent crude oil is back above $100 amid geopolitical noise, but the most relevant factor isn't the price of oil, it's the reaction of the yield curve.

Treasuries opening even with stress shows that the market has returned to pricing in persistent inflation, not a temporary shock.

In the end, the message is clear: bonds no longer protect as they once did. Instead of hedging, they've become part of the problem.


![](https://m.stacker.news/137850)

Oil prices rise, interest rates rise... and the hedge disappears.

The dollar's share of global reserves continues to fall, and now at an accelerated pace.

This isn't necessarily an abandonment of the market, but rather diversification.

People are buying more gold, more local currencies, and engaging in more fragmentation.

In the end, the dollar remains dominant, but it has been losing ground.


![](https://m.stacker.news/137846)

The whole world uses the dollar… but less and less.

April is historically the best month for global stock markets in the last 25 years, with average returns above 1.5% and 75% positive occurrences in the MSCI World.

The problem is that seasonality is an average, not a guarantee.

And this April has tariffs, a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, and an earnings season with estimates that may not withstand the new scenario.

Historical data is in its favor. The current environment is against it.

![](https://m.stacker.news/137414)

April is the best month for global stock markets over the last 25 years globally

In the S&P 500, sectors negatively impacted by oil prices outweigh those that benefit.

In the Russell 2000, the opposite is true: energy and capital goods represent more than 20% of the index, while the consumer sector accounts for less than 10%.

In a scenario of persistently high oil prices, American small-cap stocks have a structurally more favorable composition than large-cap stocks.


![Imagem](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HFOB79IaAAACnAU?format=jpg&name=medium)

High oil prices hurt the S&P 500 more than the Russell 2000.

When correlation is high, everything goes up and down together. Macroeconomics dominate, and selecting companies doesn't make much difference.

When it falls, as it is now, the individual fundamentals of each company become important again.

Is this the most favorable environment for stock picking in almost a decade?

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HFOCq1ObIAAHLjU?format=jpg&name=large)

The correlation between S&P 500 stocks is at its lowest level since 2017.

France and the United Kingdom will be the most import-dependent countries for diesel and kerosene in Europe in 2025, according to BloombergNEF.

While the Netherlands and Greece are net exporters, the UK and France carry deficits of more than 300,000 barrels per day.

This represents a significant vulnerability in a scenario of geopolitical tensions and pressure on supply routes.

Energy = geopolitics.


![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HFIz_hbW8AEeMAz?format=jpg&name=medium)

Energy dependence: France and UK lead diesel deficit in Europe amid supply risks

Nearly $1 billion went into the ETF that bets on falling oil prices, the largest inflow in history.

The market has become more skeptical about the price of oil.

That's brave, huh?

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HE58XexX0AA6WzN?format=jpg&name=medium)

Oil spill exploding

It's no longer the absolute peak of a few days ago, but it's still one of the highest in recent years… a clear sign of protection and fear in the short term.

Historically, when everyone is already hedged, the marginal risk ceases to be a downside… and becomes an upside.

Less forced selling, more room for a squeeze?


![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HEvrW7mbwAE_3qS?format=jpg&name=large)

Put positioning on the S&P 500 has returned to extreme levels.

Flow is leaving credit ETFs and going into short-term Treasuries, one of the worst relative levels in the last ~10 years.

This doesn't usually align with the US stock market near its highs.

Either credit is seeing something ahead of you… or equity hasn't adjusted yet.

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HEqbYUiXkAAbbqu?format=jpg&name=large)

Credit in the US is sending a message.

The current selloff in the US has already lasted longer than last year's... but with a much smaller magnitude.

There's no capitulation, no panic, no obvious "buy the dip."

Just a market that's gradually wearing down.

And that, curiously, tends to be more uncomfortable…


![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HEqb37uW8AAQTjA?format=jpg&name=large)

The current selloff in the US has already lasted longer than last year's...

Everyone looks at WTI or Brent, but it's the derivatives that dictate the real cost of the economy.

Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are running well above the price of oil.

In other words, even without a spike in crude oil prices, energy costs remain under pressure.

It's much more about refining bottlenecks and high spreads.

In the end, the inflationary impact remains anyway.


![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HEfXtM7WQAAqrGV?format=jpg&name=large)

Derivatives set the economy's real cost for markets!!

With the S&P trading near ~20x forward P/E, still above the historical average (~15x), it's difficult to call it "cheap".

Historically, good entry points have come closer to 1 standard deviation below the average, in the ~12-13x range.

But I also think we shouldn't view these multiples in a "non-catastrophic" scenario.


![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HEW9FDSbYAI27Me?format=jpg&name=medium)

What is the best buying point for the American stock market?

Historically, the S&P and oil prices have moved more or less in tandem... global growth, demand, flows.

But now the correlation has turned significantly negative.

This usually doesn't last.

Either oil is too expensive... or the stock market is too optimistic.


![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HEXjnaNXUAAFiyw?format=jpg&name=medium)

When oil and the stock market stop moving in tandem, something is amiss.

ETFs already account for approximately 37% of trading volume, close to historical highs.

In practice, this changes some things: movements become more technical, correlations increase, and distortions can last longer.

Understanding flow today is almost as important as understanding fundamentals.


![](https://m.stacker.news/135635)

The market is becoming increasingly "passive".

The oil shock is changing the classic interpretation of "flight to quality."

With energy prices putting pressure on inflation and expectations, long-term interest rates are rising and bond prices are falling.

The result: a significant wipeout in market value, even in a high-risk environment.

There are few assets that are serving as protection in the current situation.


![](https://m.stacker.news/135633)

War isn't always bullish for bonds.

Asia is by far the region most exposed to the Middle East, with countries highly dependent on imports from the region.

Europe appears much more diversified, while Latin America is relatively protected.

In practice, a supply shock in Iran tends to generate asymmetrical impacts: more pressure in Asia, less in Europe, and more limited effects here.


![](https://m.stacker.news/135452)

Oil shocks don't hit the world the same way

Iran's exports plummeted to approximately 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), well below the 2025 average of approximately 2.2 mb/d—a clear sign of recent disruption.

But the most interesting point is in the graph: a one-off spike in the latest data shows how volatile and dependent on geopolitical events the flow has become.

It's no longer just about supply and demand.

Very event-driven.


![](https://m.stacker.news/135233)