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@Arceris
61,897 sats stacked
0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Arceris 19 Nov \ parent \ on: Trump to Pick Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary Politics_And_Law
Yeah. I think as head of Treasury that would be a clear conflict. At least at Commerce he isn't directly in charge of treasury issuance & policy.
Lutnick was co-chair of Trump's transition team. He was almost certainly going to get something... probably better this than Treasury.
Ok, I added a channel directly to Stacker News. I also edited my LND config to change the send-out HTLC on my channels to 200 millisats.
Now this reply should work with zero sats on SN and all from my node.
I am opening a direct channel to stacker news to see if this will mitigate. I'm seeing "no route" errors in alby:
2024-11-18T14:18:04-07:00 {"app_id":4,"bolt11":"lnbc10n1pnnhtctpp5frtldan6apvdn6ywu2y7nps2lqsn6rfuef785tqs563hn7s0uycqdpg2d8r5gr6v9czqvfqwdshgueqw3hjqgehxuenzdf3cqzzsxqzjcsp5wyalknd26nchkdq0ksl0em56uk5hhw6t0nle34t0nmdpxjrp4j2s9qxpqysgqqf8jlugmgkumygw4vu30xmanglxzxawtyzfs7w60muppu7ewaxt9lpvxz4h6cg7esly4u38rajtlls4nns46gxe73eq40ftvntfwl8sqw4mdnw","level":"info","msg":"Sending payment","request_event_id":1822,"time":"2024-11-18T21:18:04Z"} 2024-11-18T14:18:04-07:00 {"level":"info","msg":"Received payment failed notification","payment":{"payment_hash":"48d7f6f67ae858d9e88ee289e9860af8213d0d3cca7c7a2c10a6a379fa0fe130","value":1,"creation_date":1731964684,"payment_preimage":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","value_sat":1,"value_msat":1000,"payment_request":"lnbc10n1pnnhtctpp5frtldan6apvdn6ywu2y7nps2lqsn6rfuef785tqs563hn7s0uycqdpg2d8r5gr6v9czqvfqwdshgueqw3hjqgehxuenzdf3cqzzsxqzjcsp5wyalknd26nchkdq0ksl0em56uk5hhw6t0nle34t0nmdpxjrp4j2s9qxpqysgqqf8jlugmgkumygw4vu30xmanglxzxawtyzfs7w60muppu7ewaxt9lpvxz4h6cg7esly4u38rajtlls4nns46gxe73eq40ftvntfwl8sqw4mdnw","status":3,"creation_time_ns":1731964684062362536,"payment_index":37355,"failure_reason":2},"time":"2024-11-18T21:18:04Z"} 2024-11-18T14:18:04-07:00 {"level":"info","msg":"Marked transaction as failed","payment_hash":"48d7f6f67ae858d9e88ee289e9860af8213d0d3cca7c7a2c10a6a379fa0fe130","time":"2024-11-18T21:18:04Z"} 2024-11-18T14:18:04-07:00 {"bolt11":"lnbc10n1pnnhtctpp5frtldan6apvdn6ywu2y7nps2lqsn6rfuef785tqs563hn7s0uycqdpg2d8r5gr6v9czqvfqwdshgueqw3hjqgehxuenzdf3cqzzsxqzjcsp5wyalknd26nchkdq0ksl0em56uk5hhw6t0nle34t0nmdpxjrp4j2s9qxpqysgqqf8jlugmgkumygw4vu30xmanglxzxawtyzfs7w60muppu7ewaxt9lpvxz4h6cg7esly4u38rajtlls4nns46gxe73eq40ftvntfwl8sqw4mdnw","error":"no_route","level":"error","msg":"Failed to send payment","time":"2024-11-18T21:18:04Z"}
But those seem to be limited to the 1 sat HTLCs right now.
Somehow just got 5 sats that didn't make it to my node, so using it to post this now.
But yeah, I am definitely feeling this.
Well, good thing I didn't go big. I'd be rather annoyed that they're using parimutuel odds and it isn't like a prediction market and I'd have gone big based on the implied probability.
Regarding the election odds, I’m a bit confused about the payout.
I dropped 5000 sats on 10/13, on the Who Wins the NY race. I recall the odds were atupid that the Democrats would win (like only 50-60%). Looking at the timestamp, I’m one of the earliest bets, so it should have been in that insane range.
But I only realized 5630 (after the vig) which seems a bit low for winning a wager in that range. Shouldn”t it have been closer to 8k or 9k? It would be helpful if the betting record recorded the implied probability of the bets.
41 sats \ 0 replies \ @Arceris OP 15 Nov \ parent \ on: RFK officially tapped for DHHS Politics_And_Law
Immunities from liability are huge moral hazards. While they can serve a useful and legitimate purpose, the downsides are rather severe.
To allow a replacement to be appointed, or the special election timeline, to begin. Normally the replacement process cannot be started until the seat is vacant.
I believe this. To me this looks like a sacrificial pick, to give the Senate someone they can reasonably refuse, allowing him to get others through more easily.
“Finding banks to custody their crypto, rather than dollar deposits, has been even harder. And gaining access to the banking system would involve several regulators, including the Federal Reserve, whose leadership isn’t facing wholesale change in 2025.”
Custodia & Caitlin Long fix this…