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10 days of micro-drains (100–1500 SATs) to analyze routing behavior

Overview

For 10 days, I sent controlled HTLCs (100–1500 SATs) from my node to Breez and logged before/after channel balances to measure:
  • How routing varies with HTLC size
  • Whether channels develop “roles”
  • Liquidity drift over time
  • Mission Control path preferences
No fee changes, no rebalancing — pure observation.
Channels:
  • ACINQ — strong outbound
  • Kappa — micro-flow path
  • Stroom — inbound reservoir / corridor endpoint

📆 10-Day Drain Summary

DayDrain (sat)Channel
02000Kappa
12000ACINQ
21000Kappa
3500ACINQ
41500ACINQ
5100Kappa
6200Kappa
7300Kappa
81000ACINQ
9700ACINQ
101500ACINQ

🎯 Routing Threshold Identified

≤ 300 sats → Kappa
≥ 500 sats → ACINQ
Behavior stabilized by Day 3–4.

📈 Drain Size vs Selected Channel

Drain | Path
------+-------------------------------
100   | ████████ Kappa
200   | ████████ Kappa
300   | ████████ Kappa
500   |         ████████ ACINQ
700   |         ████████ ACINQ
1000  |         ████████ ACINQ
1500  |         ████████ ACINQ

🔄 Organic Routing (ACINQ ↔ Me ↔ Stroom)

Mission Control consistently used my node on this corridor:
Day | Route                     | Amount
----+---------------------------+---------
1.5 | ACINQ → Me → Stroom       | 400,204
1.5 | ACINQ → Me → Stroom       | 217,030
2.5 | ACINQ → Me → Stroom       | 20,061
2.5 | ACINQ → Me → Stroom       | 64,121
3.5 | Stroom → Me → ACINQ       | 100,051
4.5 | ACINQ → Me → Stroom       | 51,256
6.5 | ACINQ → Me → Stroom       | 10,002

📉 Liquidity Drift (Week Overview)

ACINQ Remote
Day 1  | ████████
Day 4  | █████████████████
Day 10 | ███████████████████████████
Kappa Remote
8k   | ████
10k  | ████████
11k  | ████████████████████

🧠 Takeaways

  1. HTLC size drives routing
    • Micro (≤300 SATs) → Kappa
    • Medium (≥500 SATs) → ACINQ
  2. Channels developed natural roles
    • Kappa → micro-payload exit
    • ACINQ → main outbound trunk
    • Stroom → inbound sink
  3. Mission Control adapts quickly Routing stabilized by Day 3–4.
  4. Anchor channels cause minor balance drift Occasional +600–1200 SATs added back to local = expected fee adjustments.
  5. Small experiment, big insight Cost ~10k SATs, revealed clear routing structure.

🚀 Next Steps

  • Watch routing without changes for a few more days
  • Possibly strengthen ACINQ
  • Add a 4th well-connected peer
  • Light fee tuning:
    • Kappa → cheap for micro-flow
    • ACINQ → efficient for medium-flow
  • Maybe run “Ultra-Micro Drains” (1–50 SATs) for Week 2

🙏 Support the Experiment

Happy routing ⚡
21 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 7 Dec
Maybe run “Ultra-Micro Drains” (1–50 SATs) for Week 2
Yes please!
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76 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 7 Dec
What was wrong with your last post?
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I updated the table and data markdown and in the meantime lost editing access, so I reposted it for clarity.
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